Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market

In early 1862, the United States government began issuing Greenbacks, a legal tender currency that was not convertible into gold. The government promised to redeem the Greenbacks in gold eventually, but speculators understood that the probability of redemption depended on Union Army military fortunes and political developments that affected the total cost of the war. To serve the speculative interest in gold, a market emerged for the purpose of trading Greenbacks for gold dollars. Because the market price of a Greenback reflected the public's perceptions of future war costs, the movement of these prices provides unique insights into how people at the time perceived various events. We use daily quotations of the gold price of Greenbacks to identify a set of dates during the Civil War that market participants regarded as turning points. In some cases, these dates coincide with events familiar from conventional historical accounts of the war. In other instances, however, market participants reacted strongly to events that historians have not viewed as very significant.

Exoplanets Around Red Giants: Distribution and Habitability

As the search for exoplanets continues, more are being discovered orbiting Red Giant stars. We use current data from the NASA Exoplanet Archive to investigate planet distribution around Red Giant stars and their presence in the host's habitable zone. As well, we update the power law relation between planet mass and stellar radius found in previous studies and provide more detailed investigations on this topic. Ten Red Giant-hosted exoplanets are found to be in the optimistically calculated habitable zone, five of which are in a more conservatively calculated habitable zone. We believe additional exoplanets can be found in habitable zones around Red Giants using the direct imaging and other methods, along with more powerful detection instrumentation

Avoiding the Great Filter : predicting the timeline for humanity to reach Kardashev Type I civilization

The level of technological development of any civilization can be gauged in large part by the amount of energy it produces for its use, but also encompasses that civilization’s stewardship of its home world. Following the Kardashev definition, a Type I civilization is able to store and use all the energy available on its planet. In this study, we develop a model based on Carl Sagan’s K formula, and use this model to analyze the consumption and energy supply of the three most important energy sources: fossil fuels (e.g., coal, oil, natural gas, crude, NGL, and feedstocks), nuclear energy, and renewable energy. We also consider environmental limitations suggested by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and those specific to our calculations, to predict when humanity will reach the level of a Kardashev Scale Type I civilization. Our findings suggest that the best estimate for our civilization to attain Type I status is within the common calendar year range of 2333 to 2404

Avoiding the Great Filter: A Simulation of Important Factors for Human Survival

Humanity's path to avoiding extinction is a daunting and inevitable challenge which proves difficult to solve, partially due to the lack of data and evidence surrounding the concept. We aim to address this confusion by addressing the most dangerous threats to humanity, in hopes of providing a direction to approach this problem. Using a probabilistic model, we observed the effects of nuclear war, climate change, asteroid impacts, artificial intelligence and pandemics, which are the most harmful disasters in terms of their extent of destruction on the length of human survival. We consider the starting point of the predicted average number of survival years as the present calendar year. Nuclear war, when sampling from an artificial normal distribution, results in an average human survival time of 60 years into the future starting from the present, before a civilization-ending disaster. While climate change results in an average human survival time of 193 years, the simulation based on impact from asteroids results in an average of 1754 years. Since the risks from asteroid impacts could be considered to reside mostly in the far future, it can be concluded that nuclear war, climate change, and pandemics are presently the most prominent threats to humanity. Additionally, the danger from superiority of artificial intelligence over humans, although still somewhat abstract, is worthy of further study as its potential for impeding humankind's progress towards becoming a more advanced civilization cannot be confidently dismissed

Decreased antiviral immune response within the central nervous system of aged mice is associated with increased lethality of West Nile virus encephalitis

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging pathogen that causes disease syndromes ranging from a mild flu-like illness to encephalitis. While the incidence of WNV infection is fairly uniform across age groups, the risk of lethal encephalitis increases with advanced age. Prior studies have demonstrated age-related, functional immune deficits that limit systemic antiviral immunity and increase mortality; however, the effect of age on antiviral immune responses specifically within the central nervous system (CNS) is unknown. Here, we show that aged mice exhibit increased peripheral organ and CNS tissue viral burden, the latter of which is associated with alterations in activation of both myeloid and lymphoid cells compared with similarly infected younger animals. Aged mice exhibit lower MHCII expression by microglia, and higher levels of PD1 and lower levels of IFNγ expression by WNV-specific CD

Stress Identification and Management in COTS Family Shelter Residents

Introduction. Previous studies have demonstrated that the homeless population experience higher stress levels than the general population. The goal of our study was to identify potential sources of stress for families staying with COTS, the largest service provider for the homeless and those at risk of becoming homeless in Vermont, and also to gauge potential interest in evidence-based stress-reduction strategies. Methods. Interviews were conducted with seven adult representatives of seven different families (of fourteen eligible) currently residing at the family shelters managed by COTS, in fall 2016. Questions included a mix of short answer items and open ended prompts. Responses that yielded quantifiable data were compiled while responses that were open-ended were qualitatively analyzed to extract core themes. Results. 6 out of 7 residents indicated they were at least as stressed while living at COTS as when they were homeless, and 5 out of 7 were receptive to some form of stress reduction. Common stressors included health, finances, lack of privacy, children and employment status. Discussion. Residents at the family shelters come from a variety of cultural and experiential backgrounds. The composition of COTS\u27 inhabitants and their needs are in dynamic flux. Accordingly, our conclusions may not translate into the future. Our observations underscore a need and a desire for stress-reduction intervention. Thus, we recommend COTS pilot both a weekly mediation class and weekly yoga class. We also suggest the organization provide nutritional information sheets to residents and explore implementing a car share program.https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/comphp_gallery/1243/thumbnail.jp

Predicting Economic Optimal Nitrogen Rate with the Anaerobic Potentially Mineralizable Nitrogen Test

Estimates of mineralizable N with the anaerobic potentially mineralizable N (PMNan) test could improve predictions of corn (Zea mays L.) economic optimal N rate (EONR). A study across eight US midwestern states was conducted to quantify the predictability of EONR for single and split N applications by PMNan. Treatment factors included different soil sample timings (pre-plant and V5 development stage), planting N rates (0 and 180 kg N ha−1), and incubation lengths (7, 14, and 28 d) with and without initial soil NH4–N included with PMNan. Soil was sampled (0–30 cm depth) before planting and N application and at V5 where 0 or 180 kg N ha−1 were applied at planting. Evaluating across all soils, PMNan was a weak predictor of EONR (R2 ≤ 0.08; RMSE, ≥67 kg N ha−1), but the predictability improved (15%) when soils were grouped by texture. Using PMNan and initial soil NH4–N as separate explanatory variables improved EONR predictability (11–20%) in fine-textured soils only. Delaying PMNan sampling from pre-plant to V5 regardless of N fertilization improved EONR predictability by 25% in only coarse-textured soils. Increasing PMNan incubations beyond 7 d modestly improved EONR predictability (R2 increased ≤0.18, and RMSE was reduced ≤7 kg N ha−1). Alone, PMNan predicts EONR poorly, and the improvements from partitioning soils by texture and including initial soil NH4–N were relatively low (R2 ≤ 0.33; RMSE ≥ 68 kg N ha−1) compared with other tools for N fertilizer recommendations

Beyond the medals: a cross-sectional study exploring retired elite female athletes\u27 health.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the impact of elite sport participation on long-term athlete health. We aimed to: (1) describe musculoskeletal, mental health, reproductive/endocrine and cardiovascular characteristics in retired elite female athletes and compare to the general population and (2) explore athletes\u27 perceptions of their elite sport participation and its impact on health. METHODS: A 136-item online questionnaire was disseminated to Canadian elite female rowing and rugby athletes \u3e18 years old, \u3e2 years retired from elite competition. Matched general population data were obtained from Statistics Canada when available. RESULTS: Seventy-four (24% response rate) athletes (average age 45 (±9) years; retired 15 (±9) years) completed the questionnaire (30 rowing, 44 rugby athletes). During their career, 63 athletes (85%) experienced a hip/groin, knee, foot/ankle injury, or low back pain, with 42 (67%) reporting ongoing symptoms. Athletes 35-54 years reported worse knee symptoms and quality of life compared with the general population (symptom: p=0.197; d=1.15 [0.66, 1.63]; quality of life: p=0.312 d=1.03 [0.54, 1.51]) while other hip, knee and foot/ankle outcome scores were similar. Retired athletes had lower odds of anxiety (OR=0.155 [95% CI0.062 to 0.384]), greater lifetime/ever odds of amenorrhea (OR=6.10 [95%CI 2.67 to 13.96]) and gave birth when older (p CONCLUSION: These novel insights can inform future preventative efforts to promote positive elite sport-related outcomes for current, former and future female athletes